A common basis for rail feasibility
evaluation has been the cost per passenger using the train, i.e. a comparison
of anticipated revenue relative to the cost for the development and operation
of the train. This does not include any social, medical and environmental
impacts from using a gasoline fueled car.
A previous study evaluated the
feasibility for developing a commuter train for the Temecula Valley region. It
was reported as RCTC 2007:
The RCTC 2007 study is partial
analysis of the feasibility for the creation of a commuter train along route
I-15. Although the report is 10 years old, many of the analyses are pertinent
to our mission for creating such a commuter train. The RCTC 2007 partial
evaluation is a stepping stone for a complete evaluation.
Since 2007, many of the assumptions made for the RCTC report
would require adjustment. The population density within the whole I-15 corridor
has increased or is under pressure due to the continuous demand for reasonable
cost housing. In turn, higher populations
have resulted in further congestion of the Interstate 15 corridor. A second
study of population expansion would be required for a realistic forecast to the
year 2030. In addition, the cost per mile and the
ridership population is highly dependent on economic metrics, such as the cost
of fuel, cost of time on the congested roads, and the necessity to use more environmentally
safe commuter transportation.
This report is not based on a
complete cost-benefit analysis. It is a straight comparison of the estimated
development costs of a rail system - tracks, stations and trains relative to
the projected number of passengers. The analysis was projected to 2030. The
validity of the projection is open to question. Some of the evaluations were
based on a 2004 model. In order to evaluate the RCT 2007 report, a
documentation of the model and a list of all input parameters should be made
available.
As such, the report published in
2007 is a partial analysis. A new study should consider the total costs
and benefits for developing an electric commuter train connecting East Ontario
to San Diego via the Temecula Valley.
http://sierraconservation.blogspot.com/2017/03/riverside-to-san-diego-commuter-train.html
Michael H. Momeni