Discussion and Response to COVID-19 and prospect for survival

I hesitated to respond to questions identified in the following article "COVID-19 and prospect for survival":  But many people are asking similar questions. There are at least partial answers available. And that may (or may not) help to put things in perspective.

1. An individual who recovers from Covid-19 does have antibodies to it. That is being used now to detect and identify individuals who had the virus but had no symptoms. And some studies are now suggesting that as many as half of all infected individuals had no symptoms at all. That, and of those showing symptoms, 80% of them had mild disease. So the majority of people will recover and will have antibodies. Those antibodies will protect those individuals from reinfection. What isn't known is for how long. Immunity wears off. That's why you need booster shots for things like shingles and tetanus. So we don't know if the immunity to Covid-19 will be short lived or long term - we'll see. Maybe those individuals will need the immunizations. Maybe not.

In the meantime, because people who have recovered have antibodies, there are studies to see if their "convalescent serum" which has those antibodies in it could be transfused into sick patients to help them fight the virus. Trials are underway.

2. We do have drugs that treat (and in some cases can cure) some viruses - a lot of that research has come from studies in Hepatitis and AIDS research. And dozens of countries are currently engaged in testing many many different drugs to treat COVID-19. Recently Gilead was in the news with their antiviral drug - but there are many out there being developed. That can be done rather quickly. And that will buy us all some time. In the meantime, a vaccine will take longer - but again many countries are focused on developing a vaccine and that is also being "fast tracked"... but a vaccine is probably a year or so out...

3. An individual who has recovered from COVID-19 is not going to infect anyone else - there are currently no reports of a carrier state. However, remember that as many as half of all infected people have no symptoms - but until they develop antibodies, they are presumably capable of spreading the disease... So you could appear to be perfectly healthy and you could still be spreading COVID-19 to others.... Or you could get it from somebody who doesn't appear to be ill... You can't skip social distancing just because you feel okay or because you think someone else seems to be okay....

4. Yes COVID-19 has mutated - but not significantly... and so far at a very slow pace...

However people tend to hear and believe what they want to hear and what is convenient:

1. The original "social distancing" recommendation was to stay 6 feet apart for no more than 10 minutes. Have you seen the time limit mentioned by anyone since then? I haven't. And more recent recommendations are for 13 feet. With actual studies showing "spray" up to 27 feet. I haven't seen any revisions to the original official recommendation - I guess it isn't convenient...

2. Also, if you listened closely during the health reports, cloth face coverings are to reduce the chances that you will infect someone else - the cloth coverings do not protect you! The surgical masks and N95 masks are recommended only for health care workers and first responders - those masks do protect the wearer. But don't run out and buy masks. You also need disposable gloves. And a gown. And you need to know how to maintain a sterile field - which, unless you have medical training, you're going to mess up... So your best bet is to continue the best social distancing that you can achieve and self quarantine.... But, for my sake, wear the cloth mask if you do go out...

3. Flattening the curve. This means spreading out the cases so that the available medical and health services don't get overwhelmed all at once. However this also means that the duration of the pandemic is going to be spread out - the pandemic will last longer. And no one knows for sure if flattening the curve means fewer deaths - they may just be spread out over a longer time as well... but we hope that it means fewer deaths... we'll see...

4. Finally, no one knows how long this is going to last. Pandemics tend to go in waves. And many health officials are expecting a second wave around August. Overall the latest estimates that I've heard are that this will probably taper out over a year to a year and a half. That may mean that schools and some businesses will have to remain closed next year. I hope not - but, again, we'll see...

So be patient. Be vigilant. Continue the social distancing and self quarantine measures. Wash your hands and face. Wipe down surfaces. Etc. We'll get through this. And, if we pay attention, we'll all learn something.

Bruce J. Weimer, M.D.